Our videos.

Our insight of what we judge to be the key macroeconomic, political or strategic events that could have a bearing on your investments.

Why The House (Or In This Case, The Bank of Japan) Always Wins…
As the Federal Reserve jolts financial markets across the World by indicating that US interest rates will continue to rise through 2019, the Bank of Japan follows a very different path. Indeed, the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor, Masazumi Wakatabe, declared earlier this year that "there are no limits to monetary policy". If any one Central Bank is trying to prove this statement accurate (or a potential grand folly), it is the Bank of Japan.
Why The House (Or In This Case, The Bank of Japan) Always Wins…
As the Federal Reserve jolts financial markets across the World by indicating that US interest rates will continue to rise through 2019, the Bank of Japan follows a very different path. Indeed, the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor, Masazumi Wakatabe, declared earlier this year that “there are no limits to monetary policy”. If any one Central Bank is trying to prove this statement accurate (or a potential grand folly), it is the Bank of Japan.
Market Commentary 09 November 2018
Following a turbulent October, the Market was hoping that the US Mid-term elections this week could help to start a much needed Christmas rally.  The outcome largely matched the forecasts.  Democrats won control of the House (for the first time in 10yrs), while Republicans retained the Senate.
The Curse of Black Gold
From a low of $42 a barrel, in early February 2016, the Brent crude measure of oil has risen over 95% to stand at $82 a barrel at the end of September. Given that the US imposed sanctions on Iran which kick in next month and the Venezuelan economy may well be on the verge of collapse – then could we be on the cusp of another oil price shock with $100 a barrel being the near term target?
Magic Money Tree
So, a recession is coming, we do not know when, what will cause it, nor for how long it might last. We do know that with interest rates in many parts of the World below zero, close to zero or not much more than 2% (outside of Argentina where they have been 60% recently), that the old levers of monetary policy are not available to stimulate demand as has been the case in prior recessionary scenarios when central banks would slash interest rates, as was last seen post the 2008 financial crisis.  
Presidential Arm Twisting
Central banks are for the most part independent financial institutions across the advanced world, but it does not mean they are immune to outside pressure and, at times, their level of independence from political influence is no wider than a cigarette paper.
New World Order
After World War II the United States and Russia broadly carved up large swathes of the World (China looked very much inward). In what has been known as ‘The West’, post-1945, we got used to a global system policed by an array of acronyms ranging from the IMF, IBRD, OPEC, EU, BIS, WTO etc.