Our videos.

Our insight of what we judge to be the key macroeconomic, political or strategic events that could have a bearing on your investments.

Magic Money Tree
So, a recession is coming, we do not know when, what will cause it, nor for how long it might last. We do know that with interest rates in many parts of the World below zero, close to zero or not much more than 2% (outside of Argentina where they have been 60% recently), that the old levers of monetary policy are not available to stimulate demand as has been the case in prior recessionary scenarios when central banks would slash interest rates, as was last seen post the 2008 financial crisis.  
Magic Money Tree
So, a recession is coming, we do not know when, what will cause it, nor for how long it might last. We do know that with interest rates in many parts of the World below zero, close to zero or not much more than 2% (outside of Argentina where they have been 60% recently), that the old levers of monetary policy are not available to stimulate demand as has been the case in prior recessionary scenarios when central banks would slash interest rates, as was last seen post the 2008 financial crisis.  
Presidential Arm Twisting
Central banks are for the most part independent financial institutions across the advanced world, but it does not mean they are immune to outside pressure and, at times, their level of independence from political influence is no wider than a cigarette paper.
New World Order
After World War II the United States and Russia broadly carved up large swathes of the World (China looked very much inward). In what has been known as ‘The West’, post-1945, we got used to a global system policed by an array of acronyms ranging from the IMF, IBRD, OPEC, EU, BIS, WTO etc.
Divergence and De-Synchronisation
Recently economic data globally has shown signs of becoming more divergent, representing a change in direction following the period of synchronised growth observed during 2017.
Trump Trade Wars
President Trump has not been afraid to upset the apple cart over many issues, since his election to public office, but perhaps the one area he has been consistent on for decades in a personal capacity is his view over the US being stiffed on trade with foreign nations.
Two Very Different Kinds Of Risk
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s new book (Skin in the Game), contains some highly relevant lessons for investors. The most directly applicable part is the logic of risk taking.