Our videos.

Our monthly insight of what we judge to be the key macroeconomic, political or strategic events that could have a bearing on your investments.

The Curse of Black Gold
From a low of $42 a barrel, in early February 2016, the Brent crude measure of oil has risen over 95% to stand at $82 a barrel at the end of September. Given that the US imposed sanctions on Iran which kick in next month and the Venezuelan economy may well be on the verge of collapse - then could we be on the cusp of another oil price shock with $100 a barrel being the near term target?
The Curse of Black Gold
From a low of $42 a barrel, in early February 2016, the Brent crude measure of oil has risen over 95% to stand at $82 a barrel at the end of September. Given that the US imposed sanctions on Iran which kick in next month and the Venezuelan economy may well be on the verge of collapse – then could we be on the cusp of another oil price shock with $100 a barrel being the near term target?
Magic Money Tree
So, a recession is coming, we do not know when, what will cause it, nor for how long it might last. We do know that with interest rates in many parts of the World below zero, close to zero or not much more than 2% (outside of Argentina where they have been 60% recently), that the old levers of monetary policy are not available to stimulate demand as has been the case in prior recessionary scenarios when central banks would slash interest rates, as was last seen post the 2008 financial crisis.  
Presidential Arm Twisting
Central banks are for the most part independent financial institutions across the advanced world, but it does not mean they are immune to outside pressure and, at times, their level of independence from political influence is no wider than a cigarette paper.