Our videos.

Our insight of what we judge to be the key macroeconomic, political or strategic events that could have a bearing on your investments.

Why the House (or in this case the Bank of Japan) always wins….
As the Federal Reserve jolts financial markets across the world, by indicating US interest rates will continue rising through 2019, the Bank of Japan follows a very different path. Indeed, BoJ deputy governor Wakatabe-San declared earlier this year that ‘there are no limits to monetary policy’. If any one central bank is trying to prove this statement accurate (or a potential grand folly) it is the BoJ.
Why the House (or in this case the Bank of Japan) always wins….
As the Federal Reserve jolts financial markets across the world, by indicating US interest rates will continue rising through 2019, the Bank of Japan follows a very different path. Indeed, BoJ deputy governor Wakatabe-San declared earlier this year that ‘there are no limits to monetary policy’. If any one central bank is trying to prove this statement accurate (or a potential grand folly) it is the BoJ.
Market Commentary 09 November 2018
Following a turbulent October, the Market was hoping that the US Mid-term elections this week could help to start a much needed Christmas rally.  The outcome largely matched the forecasts.  Democrats won control of the House (for the first time in 10yrs), while Republicans retained the Senate.
The Curse of Black Gold
From a low of $42 a barrel, in early February 2016, the Brent crude measure of oil has risen over 95% to stand at $82 a barrel at the end of September. Given that the US imposed sanctions on Iran which kick in next month and the Venezuelan economy may well be on the verge of collapse – then could we be on the cusp of another oil price shock with $100 a barrel being the near term target?
Magic Money Tree
So, a recession is coming, we do not know when, what will cause it, nor for how long it might last. We do know that with interest rates in many parts of the World below zero, close to zero or not much more than 2% (outside of Argentina where they have been 60% recently), that the old levers of monetary policy are not available to stimulate demand as has been the case in prior recessionary scenarios when central banks would slash interest rates, as was last seen post the 2008 financial crisis.  
Presidential Arm Twisting
Central banks are for the most part independent financial institutions across the advanced world, but it does not mean they are immune to outside pressure and, at times, their level of independence from political influence is no wider than a cigarette paper.
New World Order
After World War II the United States and Russia broadly carved up large swathes of the World (China looked very much inward). In what has been known as ‘The West’, post-1945, we got used to a global system policed by an array of acronyms ranging from the IMF, IBRD, OPEC, EU, BIS, WTO etc.
Divergence and De-Synchronisation
Recently economic data globally has shown signs of becoming more divergent, representing a change in direction following the period of synchronised growth observed during 2017.
Trump Trade Wars
President Trump has not been afraid to upset the apple cart over many issues, since his election to public office, but perhaps the one area he has been consistent on for decades in a personal capacity is his view over the US being stiffed on trade with foreign nations.
Two Very Different Kinds Of Risk
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s new book (Skin in the Game), contains some highly relevant lessons for investors. The most directly applicable part is the logic of risk taking.
The Panda In The Corner
Following the close of the 19th Annual Party Congress in China and subsequent elevation of President Xi to effective premier for life last week we wanted to cast our eye over the likely economic strategy.
Currency Adjusted Returns
‘The Dollar is going to get stronger and stronger, and ultimately I want to see a stronger Dollar’. So said President Trump in late January.
The 30,000ft View On Global Risks
We enter the New Year with the President of the United States tweeting about his ‘big red button’ nuclear trigger being larger than that of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, or in Trump parlance ‘little rocket man’.
Looking Ahead To 2018
In this commentary our Strategy Committee will each cover aspects of our 2018 outlook for the global economy, currencies, equities, bonds and potential tail risk events.
What can authorities do to offset the next financial crisis?
Historically, financial crises usually trigger two policy responses by central banks and governments: emergency actions to ensure that financial markets continue to function and support for the economy via easing in the form of monetary and fiscal policy accommodation.
Past, Present and Future
In this commentary members of our Strategy Committee will cover their views mainly related to our Diversified Core Strategy over the recent period and looking forward.
Taking The Temperature Of The UK Economy
For 2017 the UK economy has seen two consecutive soft quarters of 1% real growth. The second quarter national accounts confirm that the loss of consumer spending momentum lies at the heart of the slowdown.
The Trouble With Bonds…
…might be that they cannot offer equities support in times of Market turmoil.
Diversified Core Strategy Mid-Year Review
As the first half of 2017 is now behind us we wanted to give you an update on how we have transitioned the asset allocation in our Diversified Core Strategy over the past six months.
May Day In June!
Our Chief Investment Officer, Nolan Stanton, assesses the outlook for financial markets during our June Seminar ahead of the UK General Election.
Estate Planning And All It Entails
Our guest speaker, James Beresford, from Slater and Gordon Law, discusses the importance of Estate Planning.
Solving The Trump Policy Equation
Now that the US President has returned from his first major foreign trip, during which he succeeded in throwing the cat amongst the pigeons in Europe as much as he does at home, it seems a good time to see what, if anything, his administration may achieve in his first Term to propagate real returns on capital.
Allez Les Bleus!
As the dust settles on the French Presidential Election results we can focus on the future for France and the role of the Euro.
Showdown at Mar-a-Lago
President Trump reiterated that China is a “world champion” of currency manipulation and “devaluation” in an FT interview published ahead of this week’s meetings with President Xi. He also claimed the US would “act alone” on the North Korean nuclear threat if China wouldn’t. That should get your attention.
Brexit – Part Deux
This month there is widespread expectation that the UK Government will formally trigger ‘article 50’, which will kick start the negotiations for Britain leaving the European Union in 2 years’ time. The topic has been discussed passim in the press with wild claims over the prospects for the economy made by both Bremainers and Brexiters.
Vive la France
In sharp contrast to the end of January in 2016, equity markets this February continue to hit new highs as investors begin to price in the likely policies and stimulus Donald Trump will provide to the US economy.
2017: The Year To Say Goodbye To The Old Order
2017 begins with the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20, as the 45th President of the United States, heralding government by twitter.